In a year when Employees’ Provident Fund gave a 9.5 per cent return and an over 8 per cent inflation rate ate into much of people’s income, the New Pension Scheme gave a mixed bag of results. Rising interest rates and volatile stock markets have impacted its returns in 2010-11 but, since inception, the NPS has managed to do better.
The performance review of fund managers for 2010-11 by the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority has revealed that NPS for private citizens has managed to give higher returns than NPS for government employees.
Central government employees in NPS earned a return of 8.05 per cent to 8.45 per cent, much below the weighted average of 9.7 per cent in 2009-10. While UTI gave the highest return of 8.45 per cent, SBI gave the lowest return of 8.05 per cent. However, returns for state government employees in NPS was much higher, which ranged between 11.34 per cent and 9.88 per cent.
“It is about timing your investments as well as exposure to instruments,” said a PFRDA official. Central government employees who joined the service after 2004 are mandated to be part of NPS, which allows up to 15 per cent of the total corpus to be invested in equities, while the rest in corporate debt and government securities.
Private citizens, who were allowed to join the scheme from May 2009 can invest 50 per cent of their portfolio in equities and the rest in government securities and corporate bonds via one of the six fund managers — UTI Retirement Solutions, SBI, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, Reliance Capital, IDFC AMC and Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Surprisingly, it is not equities but corporate bonds that was the top performer in the past one year.
“Equities have been the most volatile in the past one year, so corporate bonds and G-secs have given a higher return,” said Balram Bhagat, CEO, UTI Retirement Solutions, which was the top performing fund manager for NPS for central government, state government and the low cost NPS Lite.
The fund managers gave returns between 8.05 per cent (SBI) to 11.89 per cent (Kotak) for equities, which was a tad higher than the average return of 11.14 per cent from Nifty and 10.94 per cent from the Sensex. Equities as a class of investment, however, has given as high as a 17.85 per cent (ICICI) return since NPS was launched two years ago.
However, the usually staid and low-risk, low-return bonds and securities proved to be the dark horse, although PFRDA officials said that high interest rate regime has hit bond yields. Corporate bond yielded returns varying between 12.66 per cent (SBI) and 6.26 per cent (IDFC). G-secs have also given handsome returns. While UTI gave 12.52 percent, SBI gave 12.25 per cent. The lowest performer was IDFC with a return of 6.97 per cent in 2010-11.
PFRDA officials however cautioned that returns would be higher over a period of time as NPS corpus grows. The total corpus for central government employees is Rs 6,400 crore and for those of state is Rs 1,200 crore. The private sector contributed Rs 80 crore to the scheme.
The Reserve Bank on Friday directed banks to reimburse customers for amounts wrongfully debited from their accounts in failed ATM transactions within seven days of an account holder’s complaint or else pay a Rs.100 per day compensation.
"The time limit for resolution of customer complaints by the issuing banks shall stand reduced from 12 working days to seven working days from the date of receipt of customer complaint," the RBI said in a notification.
Failure to re-credit the amount within seven working days will require the issuing bank to pay a compensation of Rs 100 per day, it said.
Earlier, banks were required to reimburse customers for amounts wrongfully debited from their accounts in failed ATM transactions within 12 days.
The RBI further said that all customers are entitled to receive such compensation for delays only if a claim is lodged with the issuing bank within 30 days of the date of transaction.
The directive shall be come into effect from 1st July, 2011.
The central bank instructed the issuing bank and the acquiring bank to settle failed ATM transaction disputes through the ATM system provider only.
"No bilateral settlement arrangement outside the dispute resolution mechanism available with the system provided is possible," RBI said.
This measure is intended to reduce instances of disputes in payment of compensation between the issuing and acquiring banks, it added.
If you frequently transfer your files through USB flash drives then you must have experienced the situation where all of your folders and files suddenly went missing. This usually happens when a virus gets into the flash drive from an infected computer. In some of the cases the files and folders get hidden even after cleaning the flash drive with an antivirus.
Some viruses are designed to infect and hide the files at the same time. Antivirus software are able to clean them but are not able to make them back visible in most of the cases.
I’m one of those who have encountered this dozens of times. After searching a bit over internet, I found different tricks and apps to unhide the hidden folders when it’s not possible to unhide through files or folder properties. But from all them, USB show is the one which, in my point of view, is the fastest, working and most effective solution of all.
USB Show is a lightweight but very powerful little app that allows you to unhide files and folder from any drive in just a click of a button. You can use this on hard drives partitions as well and it doesn’t require any installation. To use it, just run the application and hit “Recover the Hide File”, then browse for the drive and give the tiny app a few seconds to find an recover hidden and effected files and folders.
1. Union Public Service Commission invites applications for various posts. 2. Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited, Tiruchirapalli requires Artisans.
3. Central Silk Board, Bangalore requires Scientists, Computer Programmer, Technical Assistant, Assistant etc.
4. Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force invites applications for recruitment of Sub-Inspectors (Overseer).
5. Central Mine Planning and Design Institute Limited, Ranchi, requires Accountants, Assistant, Drillers, Surveyors and Junior Scientific Assistants Grade –II.
6. Indian Bank, Chennai requires Chief Manager, Accountant and Forex/Domestic/Derivative Dealers.
7. The Indian Navy invites applications from unmarried Male Candidate for Grant of permanent Commission in the Logistics Cadre of Executive Branch.
8. The Indian Navy invites applications from unmarried Male and Female candidate for Short Service Commission in the Education Branch.
9. Officers Training Academy, Chennai invites applications for various Group ‘C’ posts.
Subject: Conclusion of Special Recruitment Drive launched for filling up the backlog reserved vacancies of SCs, STs and OBCs.
***
The undersigned is directed to refer to this Department’s OM of even number dated 19.11.2008 whereby a Special Recruitment Drive for filling up the backlog reserved vacancies of SCs, STs and OBCs was launched. It was stipulated that all the backlog vacancies existing in the Ministries/Departments and its Attached Offices/Subordinate Offices/Public Sector Undertakings/Autonomous Bodies etc. as on 1.11.2008 shall be filled up by 30.6.2009. It could, however, not happen. The Drive was, therefore, extended upto 30th June 2011 vide OM of even no dated 30.12.2010 and all the Ministries/Departments were requested to make concerted efforts to fill up the backlog reserved vacancies which had remained unfilled till then during the extended period of the Drive.
2. In view of the fact the drive would conclude on 30.06.2011, it is requested that earnest efforts be made to fill up all the identified backlog vacancies by the said date.
3. All Ministries/Departments are required to submit the progress of the drive to this Department, in proformae already prescribed earlier, in respect of the Ministry/Department and all its attached/ subordinate offices and autonomous/public sector undertakings by 20.07.2011.
4. It may be noted that progress of the drive is to be submitted to the Cabinet immediately on completion of the drive and as such it would be important that complete and up to date information is sent to this Department by the above date so that correct progress may be reported to the Cabinet, for which Ministry/Department would be responsible.
Dearness Allowance has turned out to make great impact among Central Government employees..!
As of now, it cannot be ruled out that the Dearness Allowance is making great impact on central and state government employees in large numbers.
We know that promotion, increment and allowances and its increases depends upon the individuals, as far as Dearness Allowance is concerned, it gives financial benefit to all grade of employees at the same time.
In March 2011, the Central Government announced an increase of 6% Dearness Allowance from Jan 2011. Now everybody keenly watch for the increase of Dearness Allowance from July, 2011.
As all are aware that, Dearness Allowance is calculated as per the All India Consumer Price Index Numbers(AICPIN). The Government has released the price index for the last three months.
Jan-11
188
2127
177.25
61.49
53.12
53
Feb-11
185
2142
178.50
62.74
54.20
54
Mar-11
185
2157
179.75
63.99
55.28
55
As per this, an increase from 51% to 55% is expected. It may be increased as we wait for the next three months calculation on Index prices. If it continues to be this, the Dearness Allowance may be 56% to 57%.
If the Government successfully maintained the price increase and the AICPIN falls, the Dearness Allowance may be restricted to 54% or 55%.
If the prices of petrol and diesel increases, automatically the price index also increase, in this condition the Dearness Allowance may be increased upto 57% to 58%.
Finally, we cannot come to a conclusion depending upon predictions. Everybody wants the Government makes strict actions to maintain the prices of essential commodities rather than increasing Dearness Allowance which in no way helps anyone.
Q2.For each Sub Post office , the--------------- willfix the authorized stockof Pass Book.
a. Head Post masterb. Sub Divisional Headsc. DivisionalHeads
Q3.When aPassBook is made over by a depositor to a Post offices for a dispatch to another Post office , it should be dispatched by ---------------
a. OrdinaryPostb. Service registered Post c. Registered Post
Q4. Thepay - in – slip can be filled either in English or in Hindi or the regional language
The abovesaid statementisa. Trueb. False
Q5All transactions as and whentheyoccur will be entered in a-------------
a. StockBookb. roughbookc. Long Book
Q6A person can open twojoint accounts with two different partners at the same post office.
The abovesaid statementisa. Trueb. False
Q7The Joint ‘B’ Type of accountcan beopened in NREGA
The abovesaid statementisa. Trueb. False
Q8 At the timeofopening of individual savings account the ---------------ofthe depositor is necessary.
a. Introductionb . Identificationc. None of the above
Q9. The intial deposit for openingof savings account shallbe accepted in cash w.e.f
a. 01.01.1990b 05.02.2000c.12.02.2005
Q10Workers wages account (NREGA) accountcannot be opened in Joint B Type
The abovesaid statementisa. Trueb. False
Q11.If thedepositor has more than one account , the totalbalance of all accounts together with his share in a joint account if any, should not exceed Rs.
a. 150000b 100000c. 200000
Q12Counter Assistant can accept subsequent depositup toRs----------------independentlyin SB accounts
a. 10000 b. 2000 c.5000
Q13 SB 103denotes
a.Preliminaryreceiptb .Voucher for Withdrawalc. Pay – in – slip
Q14SB 7denotes
a. Pay – in – slipb .Voucher for Withdrawalc.Preliminaryreceipt
Q15A person holding a power of attorney from the depositor can withdrawmoneyfrom the depositor’s accountin SB account
The abovesaid statementisa. Trueb. False
Q16When the amount of withdrawal(fromSB account at Branch office )is more than --------then itshould be noted in withdrawal register at Sub office
a. 1000 b. 2000 c. 5000
Q17when willissuememo of Admission of Payment ?
a. warrant of payment is lost before its submissionb . the amount of withdrawal more than 50000/-c None of the above .
Q18---------- is generated instead of manual long bookinSanchay Post
a. LOTb. Journalc. LIT
Q19. SB-7Adenotes
a.Withdrawal formb. closureformc. Pay – in- slip
Q20The LSG office can close individual savings accounts (Single or Joint) directly without referring the documentsto the head office .
The abovesaid statementisa. Trueb. False
Q21Whenever a transactioncannot be posted by the HO in aparticularaccount for any reason aremark------------------ will be made by the HOagainst the entry in LOT
a. not postedb unpostedc . remain topost
Q22The SB 60denotes
a. journalb . SBPassBookc. LOT
Q23TheSB slips (SB 27 )is used for ------------------
a. SB document is sent by the HO to SOb. withdraw money from counterc. None of the above
In the High Court of Judicature at Madras Dated: 08/01/2003
Coram
The Hon'ble Mr. Justice V.S. SIRPURKAR
and
The Hon'ble Mr. Justice F.M.IBRAHIM KALIFULLA
Writ Petition No. 3457 of 1999
Department of Posts,
Vellore Division,
Vellore. ... Petitioner
-Vs-
1. Smt. Beula Arulrathinam
2/113-D, Living Spring Avenue
Sanjeevipuram, Bagayam,
Vellore 2.
2. Registrar,
Central Administrative Tribunal,
Madras Bench, Chennai 104. ... Respondents
Petition under Article 226 of the Constitution of India praying for
issuance of a writ of certiorari calling for the records relating to the order
dated 1.12.98 made in O.A. No. 816 of 1996 on the file of the Central
Administrative Tribunal, Madras Bench and quash the same.
For petitioner : Mr.T.S.Sivagnanam
A.C.G.S.C.
For 1st respondent : Mr.Lita Srinivasan
O R D E R
(Order of the Court was made by V.S. SIRPURKAR, J.) The petitioner herein challenges the order passed by the Central Administrative Tribunal whereby the Central Administrative Tribunal has quashed the punishment of recovery awarded to the respondent. The respondent at the relevant time was working as treasurer in Vellore Head Post Office. She was posted there by order dated 13.12.1993. She took charge from one Manoharan on that day. She acknowledged that she had taken over postage and other stamps for Rs. 5,92,903.95 from her predecessor under acquittance in the treasurer's cash book dated 1 3.12.1993. However, on a subsequent verification of the cash and the stamps, a shortage of Rs.1,41,630/- was noticed in the stamp balance held by the respondent and, therefore, a notice under Rule 16 of Central Civil Service (C.C.A.) Rules 1965 was issued. She offered her explanation. In the explanation she claimed that she had depended upon the signature of the Deputy Post Master in the treasury cash book. She also stated that she believed the full value of the packets which were closed packets. The charge framed against her was on account of the shortage of postage stamps for Rs.1,41,630/- in her possession. It is stated in the charge and more particularly in the fourth paragraph as under : " ..... thereby there was a shortage of postage stamps for Rs.1,41,6 30/- noticed with her on the day and the Department sustained a loss of Rs.1,41,630/- on account of the shortage and thereby failed to maintain absolute integrity and devotion to duty as enjoined under Rule 3 (1)(1) and (ii) of Central Civil Services (Conduct) Rules, 1964. " In short, what was held against her was that she had misappropriated and caused loss to the department of that much of amount. The disciplinary authority found her guilty but it was stated by him that the irregularity committed on her part was explained. He came to the conclusion that she contributed her negligence for the shortage of postage stamps for Rs.1,41,630/-. On that count he ordered the recovery of Rs.16,308/- in 36 equal monthly instalment of Rs.453/- per month from July 1996.
2. In appeal this punishment was reduced and instead recovery of Rs.8,154/- in 36 equal monthly instalments was ordered against her. It was observed by the appellate authority that she had contributed to the success of the misappropriation by her negligence and lack of devotion to duty. However, considering the financial burden on the respondent, the punishment was reduced. This was challenged by her before the Central Administrative Tribunal, hereinafter called the Tribunal.
3. The Tribunal, however, came to the conclusion that the whole misappropriation was made not by this respondent but by Manoharan and for this Manoharan, from whom she had taken charge, was already dismissed. The Tribunal noted that the appellate authority itself had stated that there was nothing to indicate that there was lack of integrity on the part of the respondent. The Tribunal, therefore, came to the conclusion that once there was no question of any lack of integrity, there was no question of contributing anything to the misappropriation. The Tribunal came to the conclusion that the charge was framed for one offence while the punishment has been imposed for another offence. Since the contributory negligence and lack of devotion to duty was not the charge made against the respondent, the Tribunal
allowed the original application and quashed the punishment awarded by the appellate authority.
4. The Postal department, feeling aggrieved, has filed this writ petition. The learned counsel appearing on behalf of the petitioner department suggests that the Tribunal has exceeded its jurisdiction in entering into the arena of the sufficiency of the punishment. The learned counsel says that it was not within the jurisdiction of the Tribunal when the punishment was specifically considered by the concerned authority. The learned counsel also says that at any rate it was proved that the respondent had worked in a negligent manner and therefore she was bound to be awarded some punishment. The learned counsel says that the matter can be remanded to the Tribunal to reconsider the question of the punishment because, obviously, the concerned employer was not wholly exonerated and could not be so wholly exonerated by the Tribunal also.
5. We were taken through the order of the Tribunal as also the other records. There could be no dispute that the tenor of the charge itself is that she had herself caused the loss of Rs.1,40,630/- to the Department because there was a shortage found in her stock. It is nowhere stated in the charge that she had negligently accepted the charge from Manoharan. The tenor of the charge was not that it is she who was benefited because of the shortage found. It is for this reason that we have quoted the charge extensively. The Tribunal, therefore recorded a finding that when she was completely exonerated of causing the shortage or loss to the department, there would be no question of punishing her for that charge. The Tribunal, in our opinion, has correctly held that the applicant could not be held responsible for the contributory negligence also for the simple reason that it is not because of her contribution that Manoharan was able to commit misappropriation in respect of the stamps. It is nobody's case that she had a common scheme or there was meeting of mind between Manoharan and herself, which helped Manoharan to decamp with few stamps. Once this aspect goes then, there would be nothing in so far as the charge is concerned. It is for this reason that the Tribunal has recorded a finding that there was no question of any doubtful integrity on the part of the respondent. Even before us the learned counsel did not claim this to be a case of doubtful integrity of the respondent. The learned counsel is harping on the negligence. However, the charge against the respondent was that of a contributory negligence thereby meaning that negligence shown by her helped Manoharan to decamp with some stamps. That is not the case either alleged or proved. Under such circumstances, in our opinion, the Tribunal has taken a right view that the respondent could not be punished. We agree with the Tribunal therefore that the respondent could not be punished for the alleged, so called, negligence. There is one more reason why we are holding that the punishment of recovery was also not a proper punishment. Rule 1 1 of The Civil Service Conduct Rules speaks about theminor penalties. Rule 11 (iii) is as follows :
" recovery from his pay of the whole or part of any pecuniary loss caused by him to the Government by negligence or breach of orders; " Once it is held that there was no wrongful gain to the respondent, or no wrongful loss caused to the Department on account of her negligence, then there will be no question of effecting any recovery. We fail to understand as to how the punishment of recovery was awarded to the respondent when it is nobody's case that she helped Manoharan to decamp with the concerned stamps or she in any manner aided the misconduct committed by Manoharan. Even for this reason, the punishment of recovery was not possible.
6. In short, we agree with the Tribunal's order and confirm the same. The writ petition has no merits and it is dismissed. Consequently, connected miscellaneous petitions is also dismissed.
There are frequent queries regarding Child Care Leave. In many offices Child Care Leave is denied to the women employees stating the condition that CCL can be availed only if the employee concerned has no Earned Leave at her credit! So, please find this Order and save women employees.
Government of India has issued a office memorandum stating that there is no requirement to finish Earned Leaves to avail Child Care Leave. The complete Memorandum is given below :
No. 13 018 /1/20 1 O-Estt. (Leave) Government of India
Ministry of Personnel , P.G. and Pensions (Department of Personnel & Training)
Sub: Child Care Leave in respect of Central Government employees as a result of Sixth Central Pay Commission recommendations – Clarification regarding
The undersigned is directed to say that this Department has been receiving representations from Government Servants through various quarters like the Public Grievances Cell/A.ssOciations. etc requesting to review the decision to allow Child Care Leave (CCL) only if the employee has no E.L. at her credit.
2. This Department ‘s O.M. No. 13018/2/2008-Estt.(L) dated 11/09/2008 regarding introduction of Child Care Leave in respect of Central – Government employees and subsequent clarifications vide O.Ms. dated 29/9/2008 , 18/11/2008 and 2/12/2008 were reviewed.
It has now been decided in consultation with Department of Expenditure, to delete the condition that CCL can be availed only if the employee concerned has no Earned Leave at her credit , subject to the following conditions:-
CCL may not be granted in more than 3 spells, in a calendar year.
CCL may not be granted for less than 15 days.
CCL should not ordinarily be granted during the probation period except in case of certain extreme situations where the leave sanctioning authority is fully satisfied about the need of Child Care Leave to the probationer. It may also be ensured that the period for which this leave is sanctioned during probation is minimal.
3. It is reiterated that the leave is to be treated like Earned Leave and sanctioned as such.
4. These orders take effect from 1 . 9.2008 . Earned Leave, if any, availed by women employees before availing CCL subsequent to the issue of the OM 13018/2/2008-Estt. (L) dated 18-11-2008 may be adjusted against CCL, if so requested by the employee.
Many queries have been raised and clarification were sought by our central government employees regarding the child care leave. As we expected, Now the Department of Personnel & Training, Ministry of Personnel, P.G. and Pensions, has issued the clarification (OM.No No. 13018/1/2010-Estt. (Leave) dated the 30th December, 2010, regarding the child care leave.The doubts clarified here have also been raised by our viewers time to time. We hope that this DOP & T clarification will clear their doubts.
Sub: Child Care Leave to Central Government employees – regarding
The undersigned is directed to say that subsequent to issue of this Department OM of even number dated 07/09/2010, this Department has been receiving references from various Departments. seeking clarifications. The doubts raised are clarified as under
1. Whether Earned Leave availed for any purpose can be converted into Child Care Leave? How should applications where the purpose of availing leave has been indicated as ‘Urgent Work’ but the applicant claims to have utilized the leave for taking care of the needs of the child. be treated?
Child Care Leave is sanctioned to women employees having minor children, for rearing or for looking after their needs like examination, sickness etc. Hence Earned Leave availed specifically for this purpose only should be converted.
2. Whether all Earned Leave availed irrespective of number of days i.e. less than 15 days, and number of spells can he converted? In cases where the CCL spills over to the next year ‘(for example 30 days CCL from 27thDecember), whether the Leave should be treated as one spell or two spells?
No. As the instructions contained in the OM dated 7.9.2010 has been given retrospective effect all the conditions specified in the OM would have to be for fulfilled conversion of the Earned Leave into Child Care Leave. In cases where the leave spills over to the next ear, it may be treated as one spell against the year in which the leave commences.
3. Whether those who have availed Child Care Leave for more than 3 spells with less than 15 days can avail further Child care leave for the remaining period of the current year?
No. As per the OM of even number dated 7.9.2010, Child Care Leave may not be granted in more than 3 spells. Hence CCL may not be allowed more than 3 times irrespective of the number of days or times Child Care Leave has been availed earlier. Past cases may not be reopened.
4. Whether LTC can be availed during Child Care leave?
LTC cannot be availed during. Child Care leave as Child Care Leave is granted for the specific purpose of taking care of a minor child for rearing or for looking after any other needs of the child during examination, sickness etc.
2. Barack Obama doesn’t take permission from Sonia ji.
3. He was not hiding in India. Our system is unable to find a Chief Minister in own country, can you expect them to find Osama.
4. He didn’t surrender himself to Indian government. This government is not able to give death sentence to already arrested and proven guilty Ajmal Kasab and Afzal Guru after years. Osama could have spent a lifetime here at our expense and at 7 star comfort..
5. CBI was not incharge of investigation and operation. They are busy in saving Kalmadi ,Raja, Kanimozi, Balwa etc.
6. Amar Singh didn’t leak the tape of Obama’s phone, neither talked to Jayaprada at night on this.
7. In Pakistan, he was not in minority community, so no human right activist and secular journalist came to save him, bechara Padgaonkar, Mahesh Bhatt, Shabana Azmi, Arundhoti Roy etc.etc.
8. He didn’t meet Ekta Kapoor. She could have given him tips to be alive again.
9. He didn’t request Rajnikant to save him.
10. Last but not the least. He trusted Pakistan. But our Manmohan Singh lovs to trust Pakistan.
Thought of the day:
No one is safe in Pakistan.....not even Osama Bin Laden. Everyone is safe in India......even Ajmal Kasab & all the political thieves, rogue babus, businessmen.
THE late Richard Holbrooke, the Obama administration’s envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, had many virtues as a diplomat, but tact was not among them. His description of his theatre of operations as “AfPak” infuriated the Pakistanis, who wanted the Americans to regard their country as a sophisticated, powerful ally worthy of attention in itself, not just as a suffix to the feuding tribesmen next door. But that was not the only reason the coinage was unwise. It encouraged the understandable American tendency—shaped by the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, the war against the Taliban and now the death of Osama bin Laden—to see Pakistan in the context of the fighting on its north-west frontier, and thus to ignore the source of most of the country’s problems, including terrorism: the troubled state of relations to its east.
The border between India and Pakistan has seen a bloody partition in 1947 that killed hundreds of thousands; more than 15,000 dead in three wars and 25 years spent fighting over a glacier; 40,000-100,000 dead (depending on whom you believe) in the insurgency in the disputed province of Kashmir. And now both countries are armed with nuclear weapons.
Bloodshed over the border is not the only measure of the damage this poisoned relationship does. In India it exacerbates feuds between Muslims and Hindus. But Pakistan has been worse affected. Fear and hatred of India have distorted its world view and politics. Ignoring this—as the West seems to be doing again—is a terrible mistake, especially because a settlement is not beyond reach.
Death and distortion
Pakistan’s obsession with India has damaged it in three ways. First, it has given its generals too much power. Pakistan’s army, at 550,000 men, is too small to match India’s 1.1m, but too big for Pakistan. The armed forces eat up 16% of the government’s budget, whereas education gets 1.2%. Because the armed forces are powerful, the government is weak; and the soldiers’ frequent interventions in Pakistani politics exacerbate this imbalance and undermine democracy.
Second, it has shaped Pakistan’s dealings in Afghanistan. In the 1990s Pakistan helped create the Taliban partly in order to undermine India’s allies in northern Afghanistan. Although it signed up to fight the Taliban after September 11th 2001, Pakistan has continued to protect some of the Taliban in order to counter India’s influence in Afghanistan.
Third, it has led Pakistan to foster Islamist terrorism—especially the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Punjab-based outfit whose purpose is to attack India. After the LeT attacked the Indian parliament in December 2001 Pakistan banned it, but it has survived—either (as the Pakistanis claim) because it has grown too successful to crush or (as the Indians suspect) because the Pakistani armed forces continue to help it covertly. Either way, India is not the only victim of this murderously stupid policy: terrorism within Pakistan is being fuelled by splinter groups from the LeT—and is going global.
As India grows in wealth and power, so do fear and obsession in Pakistan. Yet India, too, would benefit from a solution. The tension with the minnow to its west distracts it from the rise of the giant to its north, and China will surely dominate its security horizon in the 21st century. America also has much to gain from a saner subcontinent. If Pakistan’s world view were not distorted by India, it might be able to see straight on terror.
The soldiers growl
Six and a half decades of bloodshed suggest that the problem may be intractable. The hostility springs from a potent mix of religion, history and territory. Although the fighting has subsided in Kashmir, the issue remains hypersensitive: the Indian government censors publications, including The Economist, that print maps showing the current effective border. Politicians in both countries find it hard to be sensible: even those who would like a resolution are susceptible to domestic pressure—the Indians from Hindu nationalists, and the Pakistanis not just from Muslim militants but also from the generals, who regard India as a military, not a political, problem.
Nervous subcontinentals used to reassure themselves that neither side could use a nuclear weapon because the aggressor would suffer from the fallout. That may no longer hold. Since America destabilised things in 2008 by agreeing to give India civil nuclear technology, Pakistan’s determination to build up its nuclear arsenal has increased. Last month it announced that it had tested a new mobile missile with a miniaturised nuclear warhead designed to destroy invading tanks with little radiation beyond the battlefield, thus increasing the risk that a border incursion could escalate into something much more dangerous. On May 13th the head of Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence told parliament that he had already picked targets in India, and rehearsed attacks. He did not specify nuclear attacks, but did not exclude them. This is a dangerous time: Pakistan’s militants are evidently keen to show that Islamist terror will survive bin Laden’s death, and—unlike the cold war—there is scope for terrorists either to provoke a nuclear conflict or to explode a dirty nuclear device.
But while the soldiers growl, the politicians have made progress. In 2004-07 quiet talks established the framework for a settlement over Kashmir, under which Pakistan would in effect give up its claim to Indian Kashmir and India would agree to a “soft” border (one allowing a lot of freedom of movement). That deal was scuppered by the attack on Mumbai by the LeT in 2008 that killed 170 people. But both governments have shown they are willing to get back to the table, and talks are now resuming. India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, met Pakistan’s, Yusuf Raza Gilani, at a cricket match in March; and their foreign ministers are due to meet in July.
The below given interactive map demonstrates how the territorial claims of India, Pakistan and China would change the shape of South Asia
The ingredients needed for progress are clear. Pakistan has to make more effort to stop a terror group scuppering talks for a second time; India, to help Pakistan give up its claim to Indian-held Kashmir, needs to pull its army out, grant plenty of autonomy and stop shooting schoolboys who lob stones at its soldiers. (Last summer 120 died in this way.) Yet the risks—for instance from another terrorist attack—are immense. After Mumbai, India’s politicians showed great restraint. It would be difficult for them to do so again.
America can help. The nuclear deal gives it extra clout with India, which it should lean on to show restraint in and flexibility on Kashmir. It should also change its approach to Pakistan. America plies Pakistan’s soldiers with military aid, and tends to talk to them rather than the politicians. Last year it pressed the government to give General Ashfaq Kayani an extension of his term as chief of army staff; and it informed Pakistan’s generals of the death of bin Laden before President Obama called President Zardari. Boosting the soldiers’ clout diminishes the chances of a political settlement with India.
By itself, a settlement with India will not make Pakistan a safe place. But it would encourage a series of changes—reining in the generals, building up democratic institutions, spending more on health and education, rejecting Islamist terrorism, rethinking its approach to Afghanistan—which could start to transform the country. Until that happens, Pakistan will remain a disappointment to itself and a danger to the world.
